Break-even & cash

Promotion Break-Even Calculator

This night costs me money up front. How many people does it need?

A promotion earns back its cost through the margin on incremental guests, not through the headcount. Enter what the night costs you and what a guest is worth after variable costs.

Your figures stay here. The calculator runs on this device; the share link stores its numbers after the # in the URL.
Worked answer113See it ↓
01

Your numbers

A worked example is already loaded. Replace any field with the figures from the source named beside it.

Direct cost of the promotionYour quotes and invoices
$1,200.00

DJ or talent fee, advertising, printing, giveaways, extra security. Only the costs you would not have if you cancelled.

Expected spend per guestPOS average check
$32.00

What an attending guest spends at full menu price.

Discount given per guestYour offer
$6.00

The average value of the offer you are giving away. Enter zero if the promotion is not a discount.

Variable cost of salesP&L
48%

Cost of goods plus hourly labour plus card fees, as a percentage of full-price spend.

Guests you expect (optional)Your own forecast
120

Optional. Compare your expectation against the break-even count.

02

The answer

Guests needed to break even

113

at $10.64 contribution each

  • Contribution per guest$10.64
  • Net revenue per guest$26.00
  • Variable cost per guest$15.36
  • Sales needed at full price$3,616
  • Projected result at your forecast120 guests × $10.64 contribution − $1,200 cost$76.80
  • Margin of safetyGuests above break-even. A negative number means the forecast does not cover the cost.7
These must be incremental guests. A guest who would have come anyway contributes nothing new; they simply take the discount.
03 Show the arithmetic
Variable cost per guest = expected spend × variable cost %
Net revenue per guest = expected spend − discount given
Contribution per guest = net revenue − variable cost
Guests needed = direct promotion cost ÷ contribution per guest, rounded up
04 What the answer leaves out
  • Count only incremental guests. Regulars who would have come anyway reduce the return rather than building it.
  • Include only costs you avoid by cancelling. Rent and salaried management are already paid whether the promotion runs or not.
Continue if it helps

The number is the start of the decision.